Third Party Airport Crash Risk Model for Non-Towered Airports

Abstract

This research leverages the objective accident data record towards an individual and societal 3rd party “external” airport risk model for aircraft operations that crash while operating at non-towered airports. Small aircraft, specifically Part 91, operating at non-towered airports have a crash rate estimated at 10-fold that of commercial operations. Given the nature of the typically non-towered airport, situated in close physical proximity with residential structures, this exposes residents to substantive risk of injury and death due to aircraft crashing. A 3rd party risk model that maps risk of injury, death and percent structural damage will enable informed decisions about community development of properties and development or redevelopment of existing airport infrastructure intended to increase total number of operations. Existing 3rd party airport risk models are mostly confined to large aircraft operating at towered airports. Conceptually these models are transferable to non-towered airports, though only with substantive redevelopment. Current models assume structures and inhabitants are destroyed within some radius of a crash site. However, there is ample evidence that this is an unreasonable modeling assumption given a single-engine piston driven aircraft impacts a structure. Therefore this model considers MTOW of accident aircraft as well as type and location of impacted structure.

Author

• Salmon, Christian Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University

Keywords

• Risk Analysis