Aviation Safety as a Function of Pilot Experience: Rationale or Rationalization?

Abstract

This study tests the effectiveness of an experience model in predicting aviation safety behavior. The elements comprising the model include: (a) flight hours, (b) ratings and flight characteristics, (c) career status, and (d) malfunction history. Data were derived from a random sample of U.S. pilots in the fall of 1990 by means of a survey instrument. Significant variance in aviation safety is not explained by the model. The key predictor of safety behavior is the career status (i.e., certificate duration) of the pilot. Flight hours, ratings, and malfunction history are negatively and non-significantly associated with aviation safety. The research: (a) questions the use of these variables in ex post facto “explanations” of aviation safety, and (b) suggests a topology for examining safety behavior.

Authors

• Bell, Bill D Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University
• Robertson, Charles L Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University
• Wagner, Gregory S Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University