Identifying the Probability of an Accident Occurring with Suspected Unapproved Parts as a Contributing Factor

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to determine if aircraft accidents and incidents, which involve Suspected Unapproved Parts (SUPs), are a major threat to aviation safety. In order to make this determination, the study sought to establish the probability of such an event occurring. The Federal Aviation Administration's Office of System Safety provided general aviation accident and incident data for the period spanning 1987 to 1999. In an attempt to provide the most accurate results, the full sub-population was studied, and subsequently analyzed using descriptive statistics. SUPs were found to contribute to 0.008225 mishaps every 100,000 flight hours, approximately 1,928 times less than the national accident and incident rate of 15.8667 mishaps per 100,000 flight hours. As a result, the null hypothesis was rejected and the conclusion drawn that the probability of an accident and/or incident occurring with SUPs as either a causal or contributory factor is unlikely.

Author

• Baker, Brett J Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University