NTSB CAROL · Event
Event CEN15LA295
Aircraft involved
Probable cause & findings
The pilot's failure to attain suitable altitude while flying over high mountainous terrain in downdraft conditions.
Factual narrative
On June 3, 2015, about 0700 mountain daylight time, a 1940 year model Waco UPF-7 airplane, N29943, registered to a private LLC, sustained substantial damage following a forced landing resulting from a downdraft while maneuvering over mountainous terrain near Cerro Summit, Colorado. The commercial pilot, who was the sole occupant, sustained serious injuries. The personal flight was being conducted under the provisions of Federal Code of Regulations Part 91. Visual meteorological conditions prevailed throughout the area and no flight plan was filed. The flight originated from the Montrose Regional Airport (MTJ) at 0640 and was en route to its intended destination to Kelly Air Park (CO15), Elbert, Colorado, when the accident occurred. The pilot reported that the surface winds at MTJ (elevation 5,758 feet MSL) were from 140 degrees at 15 knots at the time of takeoff. He circled south of MTJ to gain altitude and elected to depart towards North Pass via Cerro Summit (approx. 8,100 feet MSL). About 5 miles west of Cerro Summit, the airplane had reached about 8,400 feet MSL and the pilot thought that his altitude was sufficient to cross the pass and continued to climb while flying to North Pass. About 2 miles from the pass, a strong downdraft was encountered. The airplane's rate of climb was not sufficient to overcome the downdraft and there was insufficient width of the valley just west of Cerro Summit to complete a turn to lower ground. The pilot stated that he believed that the left wing stalled and the airplane descended about 50 feet before striking the terrain. The pilot stated that during the impact, the engine and engine mount separated and the firewall and front section of the cockpit crushed. Both wings were destroyed and the rear cockpit and empennage remained intact. The Waco UPF-7 has a front/rear pilot seat configuration. The pilot was seated in the rear seat. In NTSB Form 6120, the pilot offered a safety recommendation that it would have been better judgment to have delayed approaching the high terrain of Cerro Summit until he had climbed more than 1,000 feet above the elevation of the pass. Additionally, with surface winds reported at his departure airport (MTJ) were from 140 degrees at 15 knots. Winds aloft at 9,000 feet in the vicinity of the mountain pass were the accident occurred were likely much stronger. Therefore, maintaining an altitude of 2,000 feet or more above the pass's highest terrain would have effected a safer crossing. The commercial pilot was conducting a cross-country flight in the single-engine vintage airplane. The flight originated from an airport with an elevation of 5,758 ft mean sea level (msl). The pilot reported that the surface wind at the airport was 15 knots at takeoff. He added that the airplane reached an altitude of 8,500 ft msl, which he thought was sufficient to fly over the high, mountainous terrain. However, as the airplane neared higher terrain, it encountered a downdraft. The airplane's climb rate was not sufficient to overcome the effects of the downdraft, and the valley was too narrow to complete a turn to lower ground; the airplane subsequently impacted terrain. The pilot reported that it would have been safer if he had used better judgment and delayed approaching the higher terrain until he had climbed the airplane to more than 1,000 ft above the ground elevation. Additionally, given the 15-knot surface wind reported at the departure airport, it is likely that the wind aloft at 9,000 ft near the mountain pass where the accident occurred was much stronger. The pilot should have attained an altitude of 2,000 ft or more to ensure that the airplane had sufficient altitude to clear the pass's highest terrain. Source: NTSB Aviation Accident Database Retrieved: 2026-02-12
NTSB Findings
Hierarchical cause / factor breakdown from the FAA bulk avdata database. Each finding tagged C (Cause) or F (Factor).
- C Environmental issues-Conditions/weather/phenomena-Wind-Downdraft-Effect on operation - C
- C Aircraft-Aircraft oper/perf/capability-Performance/control parameters-Altitude-Not attained/maintained - C
- — Environmental issues-Physical environment-Terrain-Mountainous/hilly terrain-Contributed to outcome
- — Environmental issues-Physical environment-Terrain-High elevation-Contributed to outcome
- C Personnel issues-Task performance-Use of equip/info-(general)-Pilot - C
Verbatim from NTSB's published report. Source file
NTSB_2015_CEN15LA295.txt.
Findings + structured fields enriched from FAA avall.mdb.
Full investigation docket on
data.ntsb.gov ↗.
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Related research
What the literature says.
Academic papers and agency reports matching this event's aircraft type or causal vocabulary (stall). Sourced from NASA NTRS, NTSB Safety Studies, FAA CAMI, AOPA Air Safety Institute, Embry-Riddle Scholarly Commons, arXiv, and the Semantic Scholar academic graph.
- NASA NTRS 2026 · Conference Paper
Computational Analysis of Steady State Aerodynamics of Transonic Truss-Braced Wing Configuration in Deep Stall
This study presents a computational investigation of steady state aerodynamics of the Subsonic Ultra-Green Aircraft Research (SUGAR) Transonic Truss-Braced Wing (TTBW) configuration over a wide range …
- arXiv 2023 · arXiv preprint
Automating Bird Diverter Installation through Multi-Aerial Robots and Signal Temporal Logic Specifications
This paper tackles the task assignment and trajectory generation problem for bird diverter installation using a fleet of multi-rotors.
- arXiv 2023 · arXiv preprint
Variation of Critical Crystallization Pressure for the Formation of Square Ice in Graphene Nanocapillaries
Two-dimensional square ice in graphene nanocapillaries at room temperature is a fascinating phenomenon and has been confirmed experimentally.
- arXiv 2023 · arXiv preprint
Polycrystallinity enhances stress build-up around ice
Damage caused by freezing wet, porous materials is a widespread problem, but is hard to predict or control. Here, we show that polycrystallinity makes a great difference to the stress build-up process…
- arXiv 2022 · arXiv preprint
Enhanced Prediction of Three-dimensional Finite Iced Wing Separated Flow Near Stall
Icing on three-dimensional wings causes severe flow separation near stall. Standard improved delayed detached eddy simulation (IDDES) is unable to correctly predict the separating reattaching flow due…
- Embry-Riddle Scholarly Commons 2021 · Journal article (JAAER)
Analysis on the Negative Emotional, Physiological, and Cognitive Responses Elicited from of the Activation of a Stall Alarm
Failing to identify an aerodynamic stall can lead to the inability of an aircraft to sustain flight. To warn pilots of an impending or fully-developed stall, many aircraft have safety devices installe…
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