NTSB CAROL · Event
Event FTW98LA312
Aircraft involved
Probable cause & findings
The pilot misjudged his altitude. Contributing to the accident were unfavorable wind and dark night conditions.
Factual narrative
On July 15, 1998, at 2145 mountain daylight time, a Piper PA-30, N444BP, sustained substantial damage when it impacted terrain during approach approximately 2 miles from the approach end of runway 8 at Front Range Airport, Watkins, Colorado. The airline transport certificated pilot and one passenger were not injured and the other passenger received minor injuries. No flight plan was filed for this local area personal flight which departed Front Range Airport at 2130. Visual meteorological conditions prevailed. According to the pilot, he encountered a low level wind shear and the aircraft was forced onto the ground. In his written statement and interview, the pilot indicated he saw lightning to the north after takeoff and proceeded to a downwind to land on runway 8. He said he was at "6,000 feet and 105 IAS" when he felt the airplane "sink." According to his statement, the aircraft lurched and decelerated as it contacted the ground. Elevation at the accident site was 5,689 above mean sea level. The closest weather reporting stations were Denver International Airport (DIA), located approximately 7 miles northwest of the accident site, and Front Range Airport (FTG), located approximately 3 miles east of the accident site were the same. According to their 2140 observations, there was scattered clouds at 11,000 feet, no ceiling and no precipitation. Visibility was 10 statute miles and the altimeter setting was 30.43 inches of mercury. Temperature was 68 degrees, dew point was 50 degrees and the wind was from 160 degrees magnetic heading at 18 knots. Lighting conditions were a dark night. The low level wind shear alert system was operational at DIA and there were no alerts during the time period of the accident. Density altitude was 7,300. The National Weather Service Doppler radar antenna site is located at Front Range Airport. According to their data, the antenna site is too close to the accident site to record meaningful information regarding wind activity. The pilot said that following the accident, he and his passengers walked to Front Range Airport where the injured passenger was transported by private vehicle to a local hospital for treatment. Following takeoff for a local area personal night flight, the pilot noticed lightning to the north of his position so he returned to land. While on a 2 mile final for landing on runway 8, the aircraft settled and struck the ground. The pilot said he thought he encountered a low level wind shear. Weather at the time was scattered clouds with 10 miles visibility and wind from 160 degrees at 18 knots. An airport located approximately 7 miles northwest of the accident site was equipped with low level wind shear alert equipment which was operational. The equipment did not sound an alarm. The pilot said he was flying at 6,000 feet msl and the accident site elevation was 5,689 feet msl. Source: NTSB Aviation Accident Database (Pre-2008 Archive) Retrieved: 2026-02-12
Verbatim from NTSB's published report. Source file
NTSB_1998_FTW98LA312.txt.
Findings + structured fields enriched from FAA avall.mdb.
Full investigation docket on
data.ntsb.gov ↗.
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Related research
What the literature says.
Academic papers and agency reports matching this event's aircraft type or causal vocabulary (wind shear). Sourced from NASA NTRS, NTSB Safety Studies, FAA CAMI, AOPA Air Safety Institute, Embry-Riddle Scholarly Commons, arXiv, and the Semantic Scholar academic graph.
- NASA NTRS 2019 · Conference Paper
Optimal recovery from microburst wind shear
The flight path of a twin-jet transport aircraft is optimized in a microburst encounter during approach to landing. The objective is to execute an escape maneuver that maintains safe ground clearance …
- NASA NTRS 2019 · Contractor Report (CR)
An Examination of Aviation Accidents Associated with Turbulence, Wind Shear and Thunderstorm
The focal point of the study reported here was the definition and examination of turbulence, wind shear and thunderstorm in relation to aviation accidents.
- NASA NTRS 2019 · Conference Paper
Analysis of extreme wind shear
New methods utilizing extreme value statistical theory are applied in the analysis of the largest wind component shear in a wind profile as a function of shear layer thickness and season.
- NASA NTRS 2019 · Technical Memorandum (TM)
Probabilities of zero wind shear phenomena based on Rawinsonde data records
Probabilities of zero wind shear occurence and depth based on rawinsonde data records
- NASA NTRS 2019 · Contractor Report (CR)
A Wind Shear Mechanism for Producing Sporadic E by Concentrating Minor Meteoric Ions
Wind shear mechanism for producing sporadic E layer by concentrating minor meteoric ions
- NASA NTRS 2019 · Technical Memorandum (TM)
Some aspects of wind shear in the upper atmosphere
Hydrodynamic turbulence and wind shear in upper atmosphere
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