NTSB CAROL · Event
Event GAA18CA538
Aircraft involved
Probable cause & findings
The pilot’s improper decision to initiate the flight in marginal visual flight rules over mountainous terrain, which resulted in an inadvertent encounter with instrument meteorological and downdraft conditions and the subsequent controlled flight into trees and terrain.
Factual narrative
The pilot reported that, after the skies cleared, he departed the airport following another airplane as a flight of two. During the flight they approached a ridge with no significant turbulence or issues. He added that suddenly they were in instrument meteorological conditions (IMC), and the lead airplane disappeared. He immediately changed course 10° to the left, and as he transitioned to instrument flying, the airplane encountered a downdraft. Shortly thereafter, the windscreen "filled with trees", that he estimated were less than a hundred feet away. He pitched the nose up to dissipate energy, and the airplane impacted the trees. The airplane sustained substantial damage to both wings. The pilot reported that there were no preaccident mechanical failures or malfunctions with the airplane that would have precluded normal operation. The pilot recommended that he should have flown his original flight plan, which was at a lower altitude, and he could have avoided unexpected and unpredicted winds and IMC conditions. The pilot reported that, after the sky cleared, he departed the airport following another airplane as a flight of two. During the flight, they approached a ridge with no significant turbulence or issues. He added that they were suddenly in instrument meteorological conditions (IMC), and the lead airplane disappeared. He immediately changed course 10° to the left, and as he transitioned to instrument flying, the airplane encountered a downdraft. Shortly thereafter, the windscreen "filled with trees," which he estimated were less than a 100 ft away. He pitched the nose up to dissipate energy, and the airplane subsequently impacted trees and terrain. The airplane sustained substantial damage to both wings. The pilot reported that there were no preaccident mechanical failures or malfunctions with the airplane that would have precluded normal operation. The nearest official weather reporting station, which was 16 miles southwest of the accident site, reported, about the time of the accident, 10 miles visibility, temperature 70°F, dew point 66°F, a broken layer at 2,700 ft, a second broken layer at 3,200 ft, and an overcast layer at 4,100 ft. Although these were marginal visual flight rules conditions, given the mountainous terrain, the pilot should have expected that the mountain peaks may become obscured, and with a 4° temperature/dew point spread that visibility conditions could change rapidly. The pilot recommended that he should have flown his original flight plan, which was at a lower altitude so that he could have avoided unexpected and unpredicted winds and entering IMC. Source: NTSB Aviation Accident Database Retrieved: 2026-02-12
NTSB Findings
Hierarchical cause / factor breakdown from the FAA bulk avdata database. Each finding tagged C (Cause) or F (Factor).
- C Personnel issues-Action/decision-Info processing/decision-Decision making/judgment-Pilot - C
- C Environmental issues-Conditions/weather/phenomena-Ceiling/visibility/precip-Below VFR minima-Decision related to condition - C
- — Environmental issues-Conditions/weather/phenomena-Ceiling/visibility/precip-Below VFR minima-Effect on personnel
- — Environmental issues-Physical environment-Terrain-Mountainous/hilly terrain-Effect on operation
- — Environmental issues-Conditions/weather/phenomena-Wind-Downdraft-Effect on operation
Verbatim from NTSB's published report. Source file
NTSB_2018_GAA18CA538.txt.
Findings + structured fields enriched from FAA avall.mdb.
Full investigation docket on
data.ntsb.gov ↗.
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Related research
What the literature says.
Academic papers and agency reports matching this event's aircraft type or causal vocabulary (imc, turbulence). Sourced from NASA NTRS, NTSB Safety Studies, FAA CAMI, AOPA Air Safety Institute, Embry-Riddle Scholarly Commons, arXiv, and the Semantic Scholar academic graph.
- arXiv 2026 · arXiv preprint
Direct Numerical Simulations of Ice-Ocean Boundary Turbulence
Turbulent heat and freshwater transport at ice-ocean interfaces controls glacier and iceberg melt rates, yet the underlying physics remains poorly constrained.
- Embry-Riddle Scholarly Commons 2025 · Journal article (JAAER)
Political Turbulence and Aviation Safety: A Cross-National Analysis of Political Stability's Effects on Aviation Accidents
To what extent does political stability affect aviation safety? This research aims to link domestic political conditions and public safety through the consideration of aviation accident frequency.
- arXiv 2025 · arXiv preprint
Explainable LiDAR 3D Point Cloud Segmentation and Clustering for Detecting Airplane-Generated Wind Turbulence
Wake vortices - strong, coherent air turbulences created by aircraft - pose a significant risk to aviation safety and therefore require accurate and reliable detection methods.
- arXiv 2024 · arXiv preprint
Does small-scale turbulence matter for ice growth in mixed-phase clouds?
Representing the glaciation of mixed-phase clouds in terms of the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen process is a challenge for many weather and climate models, which tend to overestimate this process because…
- arXiv 2023 · arXiv preprint
Effects of electrostatic interaction on clustering and collision of bidispersed inertial particles in homogeneous and isotropic turbulence
In sandstorms and thunderclouds, turbulence-induced collisions between solid particles and ice crystals lead to inevitable triboelectrification.
- SKYbrary (Eurocontrol) 2023 · SKYbrary article
Wake Vortex Turbulence — SKYbrary Knowledge Base
SKYbrary wake vortex turbulence comprehensive article — generation mechanics, dissipation factors, separation standards (ICAO LIGHT/MEDIUM/HEAVY/SUPER + recategorisation RECAT-EU).
Browse the full corpus — academia portal ↗