NTSB CAROL · Event
Event CEN14LA086
Registry · N5386Z
FAA Aircraft Registry record.
Make / Model
PIPER PA-22-108
Year of manufacture
1961 · 52 years old at event
Engine
LYCOMING 0-235 SERIES (115 hp)
Seats / Engines
2 seats · 1 engine
Last airworthiness date
19611024
ADS-B equipped
Yes — Mode-S A6D167
Registrant of record
KETCHAM BLAKE L
Source: FAA Aircraft Registry (releasable master file).
Aircraft involved
Probable cause & findings
The student pilot’s loss of control during landing in gusting wind conditions. Contributing to the accident was the pilot’s decision to land with gusting wind.
Factual narrative
On December 11, 2013, at 1105 eastern standard time, a Piper PA-22-108, N5386Z, nosed-over and impacted runway 24 (11,800 feet by 200 feet, grooved asphalt) during landing at Oscoda-Wurtsmith Airport (OSC), Oscoda, Michigan. The airplane sustained substantial damage to the wing and wing strut. The student pilot was uninjured. The airplane was registered to CAT Flight Training LLC and operated by an individual doing business as Comprehensive Aviation Training under 14 CFR Part 91 as an instructional flight that was not operating on a flight plan. Visual meteorological conditions prevailed for the supervised student solo flight that originated from OSC at 1010. The flight instructor, who was also the operator, stated that a Flight Service Station weather briefing through 1-800- WXBRIEF for the flight was obtained at 0905. He and the student pilot departed Iosco County Airport (6D9) East Tawas, Michigan at 0915 and flew to OSC. The flight instructor stated that he released the student for his second supervised solo at 0950 after a check of the weather. The flight instructor stated that the winds were 250 degrees at 10 knots with similar forecasts by MBS International Airport (MBS), Saginaw, Michigan and Alpena County Regional Airport (APN), Alpena, Michigan. The student pilot stated that during his first approach for a solo landing at OSC, he listened to the OSC Automated Weather Observing System (AWOS) and it reported winds from 270 degrees at 11 knots, gusting 18 knots. He said that the winds were 250 degrees at 10 knots when he departed. He said that the landing had a normal touchdown, but a second or two after touchdown, the right wing lifted up. He saw the airplane nose veer left and applied right rudder. The airplane started to veer more left and began to nose-over. He applied full right aileron, but the airplane continued to nose-over and impacted the runway surface. There was one weather briefing requested by and provided to the student pilot on December 10, 2013, at 0903 for a training flight departing from 6DY to OSC. The student pilot advised that the departure time would be in 30 minutes with an estimated time en route of 2 hours. Lockheed Martin Flight Services did not provide a weather briefing for N5386Z on December 11, 2013. The Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) Amendment for APN, located 38 nautical miles northwest of OSC, issued on December 11, 2013, at 0820, valid from December 11, 2013 at 0800 to December 12, 2013 at 0700, stated in part, temporary conditions from 0800 to 1000: wind – 270 degrees at 11 knots, gust – 18 knots. The TAF for MBS, located 62.6 nautical miles south-southwest of OSC, issued on December 11, 2013, at 0632, valid from December 11, 2013 at 0700 to December 12, 2013 at 0700, stated in part, wind – 270 degrees at 14 knots. From 1100, wind – 290 degrees at 15 knots. The OSC AWOS recorded the following: At 0954: wind – 240 degrees at 11 knots At 1013: wind – 260 degrees at 12 knots At 1034: wind – 260 degrees at 15 knots, gust 19 knots At 1054: wind – 270 degrees at 15 knots, gust 21 knots At 1113: wind – 270 degrees at 13 knots, gust 22 knots The operator reported that there was no mechanical malfunction/failure with the airplane. The student pilot was conducting a second supervised solo flight after his flight instructor had checked the weather and released him for the flight. The student pilot reported that, during his first approach for a solo landing, the touchdown was normal, but that, a second or two after touchdown, the right wing lifted up. The airplane then veered left, and the student pilot applied right rudder. The airplane continued to veer left and began to nose over. The student applied full right aileron, but the airplane continued to nose over and subsequently impacted the runway surface. Recorded wind exceeded 10 knots gusting to above 20 knots about the time of the accident. Source: NTSB Aviation Accident Database Retrieved: 2026-02-12
NTSB Findings
Hierarchical cause / factor breakdown from the FAA bulk avdata database. Each finding tagged C (Cause) or F (Factor).
- C Aircraft-Aircraft oper/perf/capability-Performance/control parameters-Lateral/bank control-Not attained/maintained - C
- C Aircraft-Aircraft oper/perf/capability-Performance/control parameters-Directional control-Attain/maintain not possible - C
- — Environmental issues-Conditions/weather/phenomena-Wind-Gusts-Ability to respond/compensate
- C Personnel issues-Action/decision-Info processing/decision-Decision making/judgment-Student/instructed pilot - C
- C Personnel issues-Task performance-Use of equip/info-Aircraft control-Student/instructed pilot - C
Verbatim from NTSB's published report. Source file
NTSB_2013_CEN14LA086.txt.
Findings + structured fields enriched from FAA avall.mdb.
Full investigation docket on
data.ntsb.gov ↗.
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Related research
What the literature says.
Academic papers and agency reports matching this event's aircraft type or causal vocabulary (loss of control). Sourced from NASA NTRS, NTSB Safety Studies, FAA CAMI, AOPA Air Safety Institute, Embry-Riddle Scholarly Commons, arXiv, and the Semantic Scholar academic graph.
- Embry-Riddle Scholarly Commons 2025 · Journal article (JAAER)
A Scoping Review of Aviation Loss of Control Inflight Research
Loss of control – inflight (LOC-I) contributes to aircraft accidents at unacceptably high rates. Significant industry efforts and research have aimed to improve LOC-I prevention, detection, and recove…
- SKYbrary (Eurocontrol) 2024 · SKYbrary article
Loss of Control In-Flight (LOC-I) — SKYbrary Knowledge Base
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- NTSB Aircraft Accident Reports 2022 · Accident report
Loss of Control on Takeoff in Icing Conditions — Citation 560XL
Cessna Citation 560XL fatal takeoff icing accident, March 2018. Investigation of a Citation 560XL loss-of-control takeoff accident in icing conditions.
- Semantic Scholar 2021 · Article (Aviation)
ANALYSIS OF GENERAL AVIATION FIXED-WING AIRCRAFT ACCIDENTS INVOLVING INFLIGHT LOSS OF CONTROL USING A STATE-BASED APPROACH
Inflight loss of control (LOC-I) is a significant cause of General Aviation (GA) fixed-wing aircraft accidents. The United States National Transportation Safety Board’s database provides a rich source…
- NASA NTRS 2021 · Presentation
Use of Design of Experiments in Determining Neural Network Architectures for Loss of Control Detection
Abstract—We describe empirical methods for selecting a neural network architecture to implement belief state inference on generic commercial transport aircraft.
- NASA NTRS 2021 · Conference Paper
Use of Design of Experiments in Determining Neural Network Architectures for Loss of Control Detection
We describe empirical methods for selecting a neural network architecture to implement belief state inference on generic commercial transport aircraft.
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