NTSB CAROL · Event
Event CEN16LA068
Aircraft involved
Probable cause & findings
The pilot's failure to maintain directional control during landing in gusting wind conditions.
Factual narrative
On December 19, 2015, about 1555 central standard time, a Cessna 182J, N2694F, sustained substantial damage during a runway excursion while landing on runway 26 at the RWJ Airpark (54T), near Baytown, Texas. The pilot received minor injuries and the passenger received serious injuries in the accident. The aircraft was registered to and operated by the pilot under the provisions of 14 Code of Federal Regulations Part 91 as personal flight. Visual meteorological conditions prevailed for the flight, which was not on a flight plan. The flight originated from the Del Rio International Airport, Del Rio, Texas, about 1225.The pilot reported that while performing a crosswind landing on runway 26 at 54T, the left wing of the airplane came up with the nose and right main wheels remaining on the runway. The pilot corrected to get all three wheels on the runway, and after doing so, the airplane was no longer aligned with the runway. The airplane exited the side of the runway into the grass. The nose landing gear dug into the muddy grass, and the airplane nosed over. The pilot reported that there were no mechanical malfunctions or failures of the airplane prior to the accident. At 1550, the reported weather conditions at the Ellington Airport (EFD), Houston, Texas, about 19 miles southwest of 54T, at 1550 included winds from 90 degrees at 9 knots. The pilot reported winds from 160 degrees at 10 knots gusting to 15 knots. The private pilot was conducting a personal cross-country flight. The pilot reported that, while performing a crosswind landing on runway 26, the airplane's left wing rose while the nose and right main wheels remained on the runway. The pilot corrected to get all three wheels on the runway, and after doing so, the airplane was no longer aligned with the runway. The airplane subsequently exited the side of the runway, the nose landing gear dug into the muddy grass, and the airplane nosed over. A postaccident examination of the airplane revealed no preimpact mechanical malfunctions or failures. The reported weather at an airport 19 miles away from the accident site indicated that the wind was from 90 degrees at 9 knots; however, the pilot reported that the wind was from 160 degrees at 10 knots, gusting to 15 knots. Based on the available information, it is likely that the pilot failed to maintain directional control during landing in gusting wind conditions, which resulted in the runway excursion and subsequent nose-over. Source: NTSB Aviation Accident Database Retrieved: 2026-02-12
NTSB Findings
Hierarchical cause / factor breakdown from the FAA bulk avdata database. Each finding tagged C (Cause) or F (Factor).
- C Aircraft-Aircraft oper/perf/capability-Performance/control parameters-Directional control-Not attained/maintained - C
- C Personnel issues-Task performance-Use of equip/info-Aircraft control-Pilot - C
- C Environmental issues-Conditions/weather/phenomena-Wind-Gusts-Effect on operation - C
Verbatim from NTSB's published report. Source file
NTSB_2015_CEN16LA068.txt.
Findings + structured fields enriched from FAA avall.mdb.
Full investigation docket on
data.ntsb.gov ↗.
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Related research
What the literature says.
Academic papers and agency reports matching this event's aircraft type or causal vocabulary (runway excursion). Sourced from NASA NTRS, NTSB Safety Studies, FAA CAMI, AOPA Air Safety Institute, Embry-Riddle Scholarly Commons, arXiv, and the Semantic Scholar academic graph.
- SKYbrary (Eurocontrol) 2024 · SKYbrary article
Runway Excursion — SKYbrary Knowledge Base
SKYbrary runway excursion review — RE-OE (overruns) + RE-LO (lateral). Risk drivers: long landing, high approach speed, contaminated surface, tailwind, mis-set autobrakes.
- NTSB Aircraft Accident Reports 2019 · Accident report
Embraer ERJ 175 Runway Excursion at Charlotte Douglas
Republic Airline ERJ-175 runway excursion CLT, January 2018. Examines a low-energy runway excursion involving misuse of autobrakes + thrust reverser response after a high-crosswind landing on a contam…
- NASA NTRS 2025 · Presentation
Uncovering Resilient Behavior in the Aviation Safety Reporting System Using Large Language Models
Resiliency is present in everyday life, both in system design and exhibited by the operators that function within these systems.
- NASA NTRS 2025 · Conference Paper
Uncovering Resilient Behavior in the Aviation Safety Reporting System Using Large Language Models
Resiliency is present in everyday life, both in system design and exhibited by the operators that function within these systems.
- Flight Safety Foundation 2024 · FSF / AeroSafety World
Runway Safety Initiative Final Report (RSI)
Foundation Runway Safety Initiative final report — comprehensive analysis of runway excursion + incursion risk drivers worldwide.
- Semantic Scholar 2020 · Article
Towards online prediction of safety-critical landing metrics in aviation using supervised machine learning
Abstract In recent years, due to the increased availability of data and improvements in computing power, application of machine learning techniques to various aviation safety problems for identifying,…
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